A new report from international consultancy firm, Wood Mackenzie, finds that global deepwater production will increase 60% by 2030, reaching 17 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
Importantly, the report titled: Global deepwater 2022 state of the industry, states that the sector’s expansion from 6% of upstream oil and gas supply today to 8% by the end of the decade will be driven by Brazil, Guyana and Mozambique.
Marcelo de Assis, Director of Upstream Research for Wood Mackenzie was keen to note that deepwater is the fastest-growing oil and gas resource theme. The Wood Mac official said developments are also getting deeper with production from water depths of over 1,500 metres. In Guyana, Exxon and partners have already indicated that the next 18 months will be dedicated to finding the most optimal wells at 18,000 feet in the Stabroek Block. Current finds are already had at 15,000 feet.
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis also shows that traditional growth regions, such as the US Gulf of Mexico and Angola, have lacked in major new commercial discoveries. Taking this into account, the Wood Mac official said the forecast for mature deepwater basins remains uncertain.
Be that as it may, he said the characteristics of deepwater finds today make this play an attractive hunting ground for those seeking advantaged resources. “Deepwater economics and emissions intensity metrics are among the best in the industry. Companies focused on the most resilient projects and decarbonisation will continue to consider the sector as core to their upstream business models,” said de Assis.
He warned nonetheless that the industry needs to keep its eye on inflation.
Reflecting on the changes of the last decades and the challenges of the years ahead, de Assis concluded that the future of the deepwater sector remains in the hands of the majors and Brazil’s Petrobras for the foreseeable future.